AUD/USD Outlook

by Himanshu Jain
(Tokyo)

Sunday, January 22nd, 2012: AUD/USD moved up and broke over the resistance of 1.0381/1.0386 (Dec 8th and January 3rd resistance zone). The currency pair moved as high as 1.0489 and close strongly at 1.0485 for the last week. This move also broke over 1.0425/1.0445 resistance zone of November 2nd to November 8th.

The recent price action and the formation of the ascending parallel channel of support and resistance trend-lines, make us expect further upward movement with a break of 1.0500 psychological resistance. On the upside, a firm break over the psychological resistance of 1.0500 will make us expect some convincing upward gains towards 1.0610 and then probably 1.0720.

On the downside we would expect support near 1.0350 but a break over that would indicate a break below the above mentioned trend-line channel. If such a move takes place then AUDUSD should move a little further down towards 1.0220/1.0230 support and with a break of that to recent 1.0145.

This is not for the next week but any firm break below the recent 1.0145 will start making our short-term outlook towards bearish and then with any break of minor support of 1.0100, the currency pair should move towards 1.0044/1.0040 i.e. the earlier support area during December 28th/29th. A strong break of that will reverse our mid-term outlook for upward gains and will make us expect a move towards 0.9860/0.9880 support zone.

You may also check daily technical analysis of aud/usd and the weekend audusd forecast at ForexAbode.com.

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