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EUR/SUD Forecast January 29 2012

by Himanshu Jain
(Tokyo)

eur/usd daily chart

eur/usd daily chart

eur/usd daily chart eur/usd fibonacci retracement eur/usd ichimoku cloud

EUR/USD broke the resistance mentioned last weekend and quoted above and then moved further up as we had mentioned towards 1.3230. The currency pair went as high as 1.3233 or a few pips below the Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of the downward move from October 27th to the recent bottom of January 15th.

The strong upward correction and the break above the upper edge of the daily Ichimoku cloud indicate that we can expect some more upward correction in the coming days. The development in Europe about the debt crisis do not really add any strong positive outlook for Euro in the mid-term.

On the upside a break over the Fibonacci 38.2% retracement, as mentioned above, i.e. 1.3244 and then 1.3260 is important. A firm break above this zone should take EURUSD towards the resistance zone of 1.3430 to 1.3485 resistance zone. Please note that 1.3434 represents the Fibonacci 50% retracement of the above mentioned move. Not only this but the range of 1.3430 to 1.3550 had proved to be a very strong resistance zone during November 30th to December 9th, 2011. The psychological resistance of 1.3500 would also come into picture at those levels. However a break above this will bring up the possibilities of a test to 1.3620.

Please note that we are considering the recent move as only a correction/consolidation during the overall downtrend and overall we would expect a fall from one of these resistance levels. On the downside the important support levels would be 1.3040 and then 1.2960. A firm break of these support levels and then 1.2930 should take the euro-dollar pair to retest the recent 1.2626/1.2624 bottom. The support levels mentioned are based on 55-day and 22-day EMA as well as the supports of Tenkan and Kijun-Sen of the daily Ichimoku cloud.

You may also check daily technical eur/usd analysis and the weekend eurusd forecast at ForexAbode.com.

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