Gann Mechanical Swing Trading Forecasts



Swing trading forecast's presented here are based on WD Gann's original swing trade methods.

To learn more about WD Gann - go here.

To learn more about how the swing trade rules work - go here.

In a nutshell, the idea is to follow the swing rules as a mechanical method of trading.

To reduce your risk, it is possible to wait for a 50% retracement on an active swing move before entering a position.

In WD Gann's writings he explains that in one form of his trading methods he would initiate a position only after a 1 day swing move retraces back to the 50% level. Entering trades this way reduces risk, which most successful traders like to do. This is what is known as a "low risk trading strategy".


Due to time constraints I have decided not to post any more swing charts. (I may re-start in a few months if there is enough demand from readers? Please use the contact us form to let me know). Thank you!



Market Commentary Update 1 September 2010


US Dollar daily chart 1 September 2010.

The US Dollar has now broken it's vibration as seen from the chart above. This means it's uptrend has halted for the present.

Also notice that the natural square level of 83.50 acted as resistance and also bought in a swing high.

As the uptrend could not continue, we now see a switch in pressure as follows;

Bullish pressure = AUD/USD, EUR/USD and GBP/USD.
Bearish pressure = USD/JPY, USD/CAD and USD/CHF.
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Market Commentary 31 August 2010


US Dollar daily chart 30 August 2010.

US Dollar continues to move upward (now 83.16) due to the falling US Stock Market. As seen from the above chart, notice how vibration line is holding and zig zag pattern makes it highly probably for price to move quickly above the 83.50 level. As long as this continues to be the case, expect the following to continue;

Bearish pressure = AUD/USD, EUR/USD and GBP/USD.
Bullish pressure = USD/JPY, USD/CAD and USD/CHF.
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Market Update 12 August 2010


US Dollar daily chart 11 August 2010.

US Dollar : On 11 August, price broke through the vibration time line and above the 81.00 natural square level. This means that the downtrend is complete, at least for the moment. Expect price pressure now to change as follows;

Bearish pressure = AUD/USD, EUR/USD and GBP/USD.
Bullish pressure = USD/JPY, USD/CAD and USD/CHF.

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Market Commentary
Week beginning 9 August 2010


US Dollar daily chart 6 August 2010.

Price closed on 80.40, Friday 6 August 2010.

As seen from the above chart of the US Dollar we see that the zig zag pattern played out further than expected. This pattern has now developed into the fifth leg of an impulse move. (The first three waves being the zig zag, then followed by another two waves).

As price has now moved under the next natural square level of 81.00 expect further downside action. (The next NSQ level to watch is 79.00).

The forecast still remains the same until we see a break to the upside past the 81.00 level, as well as the vibration line exceeded.(refer above chart).

Bullish pressure = AUD/USD, EUR/USD and GBP/USD.
Bearish pressure = USD/JPY, USD/CAD and USD/CHF.

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Market Commentary
Week beginning 5 July 2010


US Dollar daily chart 2 July 2010.

Price closed on 84.42, Friday 2 July 2010.

As seen from the above chart of the US Dollar we see a current zig zag pattern playing out. The final leg of this pattern may be at the natural square level of 83.50 or 82.25c, before we see a retracement back towards 85.50.

This week;

Bullish pressure = AUD/USD, EUR/USD and GBP/USD.
Bearish pressure = USD/JPY, USD/CAD and USD/CHF.

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Market Commentary
Week beginning 14 June 2010


US Dollar daily chart 14 June 2010.

Price closed on 86.51, Monday 14 June 2010.

The US Dollar failed to continue it's bullish move due to a bullish retracement move by the US stock market.

As seen from the above chart, we see the 88.50 natural square level respected. This week we may see choppy sideways price action.

This week;

Sideways = AUD/USD, EUR/USD and GBP/USD.
Sideways = USD/JPY, USD/CAD and USD/CHF.

_________________________________________________________________

Market Commentary
Week beginning 4 June 2010


US Dollar daily chart 4 June 2010.

Price closed on 88.23, Friday 4 June 2010.

US Dollar started it's bullish move upwards with more expected to follow. Applying interrelated market analysis we see bad news for the US stock market. DJIA shows a classic move down this week, which means more bullishness is expected for the US Dollar.

We can expect the following pressure;

Bearish = AUD/USD, EUR/USD and GBP/USD.
Bullish = USD/JPY, USD/CAD and USD/CHF.

_________________________________________________________________

Market Commentary
Week beginning 31 May 2010


US Dollar daily chart 28 May 2010.

Price closed on 86.48, Friday 28 May 2010.

US Dollar currently in sideways move, with the longer term trend bullish.

With time we can expect the US Dollar to start moving higher. This should cause the following pressure;

Bearish / sideways = AUD/USD, EUR/USD and GBP/USD.
Bullish / sideways = USD/JPY, USD/CAD and USD/CHF.



Swing trading forecast 21 May 2010

Market Commentary
Week beginning 24 May 2010


US Dollar daily chart 21 May 2010.

Price closed on 85.37, Friday 21 May 2010.

US stock market continued with its bearish decline, down each day for the whole week.

With this rapid move down, we may see a temporary upward retracement. This should have the effect of temporarily pushing the US Dollar downward or sideways this week.

With this anticipated downward pressure on the US Dollar this week, price pressure expected as follows;

Bullish / sideways = AUD/USD, EUR/USD and GBP/USD.
Bearish / sideways = USD/JPY, USD/CAD and USD/CHF.


Swing trading forecast 14 May 2010

Market Commentary
Week beginning 17 May 2010


US Dollar daily chart 14 May 2010.

Price closed on 86.09, Friday 14 May 2010.

US stock market continued its bearish decline, pushing up the US Dollar.

More of the same is expected over the coming weeks.

Price pressure expected as follows;

Bearish = AUD/USD, EUR/USD and GBP/USD.
Bullish = USD/JPY, USD/CAD and USD/CHF.


Swing trading forecast 7 May 2010

Market Commentary
Week beginning 10 May 2010


US Dollar daily chart 7 May 2010.

Price closed on 84.45, Friday 7 May 2010.

Last week saw the return to bearish territory for the US stock market. We missed a week and the DJIA fell sharply from grace.

It was of interest to note the interrelationship between the stock market and the US Dollar. As soon as the stock market fell sharply, the US Dollar rose sharply.

Price pressure expected as follows;

Bearish = AUD/USD, EUR/USD and GBP/USD.
Bullish = USD/JPY, USD/CAD and USD/CHF.

Beware of retracements against the main trend when large fast moves occur as happened last week.



Swing trading forecast 23 April 2010

Market Commentary
Week beginning 26 April 2010


US Dollar daily chart 23 April 2010.

Price closed on 81.35, Friday 23 April 2010.

The US stock market bounced back into bullish territory with further gains expected. The prior week, prior month, prior quarter and prior year highs have been exceeded, indicating strength. This should have the effect of pushing the US Dollar downward.

Price pressure expected as follows;

Bullish = AUD/USD, EUR/USD and GBP/USD.
Bearish = USD/JPY, USD/CAD and USD/CHF.



Swing trading forecast 16 April 2010

Market Commentary
Week beginning 19 April 2010


US Dollar daily chart 16 April 2010.

Price closed on 80.82, Friday 16 April 2010.

The US stock market broke its time vibration on Friday 16 April. It also closed under its natural square level of 11,100 points. (11,019). We now see the possibility of a few days down or sideways price action. This could push the US Dollar back again above the 81.00 level temporarily? Also notice the 1,2,3 zig zag pattern which usually has a high probability of completing a move.

To reduce risk, it is best to wait for the reestablishment of the trend before entering a position.

Price pressure expected as follows;

Undetermined = AUD/USD, EUR/USD and GBP/USD.
Undetermined = USD/JPY, USD/CAD and USD/CHF.



Swing Trading Forecast 9 April 2010

Market Commentary
Week beginning 12 April 2010


US Dollar daily chart 9 April 2010.

Price closed on 81.09, Friday 9 April 2010.

The US stock market is streaking higher and higher with no signs of slowing down. This had the effect of pushing the US Dollar in the opposition downward direction.

With the weekly and daily vibration levels broken on the US Dollar, we can expect downward pressure. Anticipate the 81.00 support level not to hold.

Price pressure expected as follows;

Bullish = AUD/USD, EUR/USD and GBP/USD.
Bearish = USD/JPY, USD/CAD and USD/CHF.



Swing Trading Forecast 2 April 2010

Market Commentary
Week beginning 5 April 2010


US Dollar daily chart 2 April 2010.

Price closed on 81.25, Friday 2 April 2010.

On the chart we see a possible completed zig zag pattern based on the daily swing chart. (1 day swing). (Refer 1,2 3 marked on chart). We also see price retracing near the Fibonacci 61.8% level.

Assuming price holds above the natural square level of 81.00 expect the following price pressure;

Bearish = AUD/USD, EUR/USD and GBP/USD.
Bullish = USD/JPY, USD/CAD and USD/CHF.

[Note: As the US stock Market also shows bullish signs, we need to be extremely careful at this stage. Should the US Dollar break below the 81.00 level, this will invalidate the above price pressures.]



Swing Trading Forecast 26 March 2010

Market Commentary
Week beginning 29 March 2010


US Dollar daily chart 26 March 2010.

Price moved through the natural square resistance of 81.00 to close on 81.67 on Friday 26th March 2010. We should now see this level turn into support before its climb higher.

With the break of this resistance level price pressure now changes too;

Bearish = AUD/USD, EUR/USD and GBP/USD.
Bullish = USD/JPY, USD/CAD and USD/CHF.



Swing Trading Forecast 19 March 2010

Market Commentary
Week beginning 22 March 2010


US Dollar daily chart 22 March 2010.

US Dollar closed on 80.65 on Monday 22 March 2010.

The downtrend reversed to now create a bullish one day and two day swing move. Resistance is still holding at the natural square level of 81.00.

As we now have some bullish signs with longer term bearish forecast along with 81.00 natural square level resistance, we need to look at the US Stock Market for direction. The DJIA shows bullish signs.

I would therefore expect to see the downtrend in the US Dollar to continue, subject to the possibility of temporary side ways price action before this takes place.

I would stay out of the market until the downward trend resumes.

Expect the possibility of choppy sideways price action for the currencies this week.

Longer term price pressure as the prior weeks;

Bullish = AUD/USD, EUR/USD and GBP/USD.
Bearish = USD/JPY, USD/CAD and USD/CHF.



Swing Trading Forecast 12 March 2010

Market Commentary
Week beginning 15 March 2010


US Dollar daily chart 12 March 2010.

US Dollar closed on 79.83 on Friday 12 March 2010.

Resistance is still holding at the natural square level of 81.00.

We also see the formation of lower highs and lower lows, which is a sign of price weakness. (Red circles).

Hence, we have the same price pressure as the prior weeks;

Bullish = AUD/USD, EUR/USD and GBP/USD.
Bearish = USD/JPY, USD/CAD and USD/CHF.



Swing Trading Forecast 5 March 2010

Market Commentary
Week beginning 8 March 2010


US Dollar daily chart 5 March 2010.

US Dollar closed on 80.43 on Friday 5 March 2010.

Resistance is still holding at the natural square level of 81.00.

We also see the formation of a double top, which is a sign of price weakness.

Hence, we have the same price pressure as the prior weeks;

Bullish = AUD/USD, EUR/USD and GBP/USD.
Bearish = USD/JPY, USD/CAD and USD/CHF.



Swing Trading Forecast 26 February 2010

Market Commentary
Week beginning 1 March 2010


US Dollar daily chart 26 February 2010.

US Dollar closed on 80.36 on Friday 26 February 2010.

Last week we expected resistance at the natural square level of 81.00. This we got! Price did not have enough strength to keep moving upwards past the 81.00 level.

Hence, we have the same forecast as last week.

Price pressure will be as follows;

Bullish = AUD/USD, EUR/USD and GBP/USD.
Bearish = USD/JPY, USD/CAD and USD/CHF.


Prior period forecasts, available here.



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