Forex Market Direction ...
Where Are The Major
Currencies Heading ...
Contributions from Himanshu from ForexAbode.com can be viewed here.
Knowing the overall forex market trend for the major currencies will prove beneficial for staying on the right side of the market. Forex Traders in general want to enter positions in line with the dominant market trend.
As the major currencies are paired with the US Dollar we can follow their dominant direction by analyzing the US Dollar.
We also know the inter-market relationship that the US Dollar has with the US Stock market, so we can gain an insight into looking at the direction of the Stock Market.
The idea behind the information here is that WE consider (with your input) the direction of the US Dollar and US Stock Market and thereby can understand where underlying pressure is for the major currency pairs.
For example if we ascertain that the US Stock Market is bullish we know that the inverse is true of the US Dollar which would be bearish, thereby applying the following pressure for the majors;
Bullish = AUD/USD, EUR/USD and GBP/USD.
Bearish = USD/JPY, USD/CAD and USD/CHF.
Current Forex Market Forecast by brainyforex
Market Commentary
As at 15 February 2012
The US Dollar has now moved ABOVE the 79.00 natural square level, 79.78. The vibration line on the chart shows its down time is complete for the present and we should see it move upwards from here toward the 81.00 natural square level. Notice also it's bullish nature by moving above the prior week high.
A strengthening US Dollar means "weakness" for the Euro, British Pound and Australian Dollar. Also, the converse (opposite) for Japanese Jen, Canadian Loonie and Swiss Franc. These three should see an appreciation in value and move upwards.
Bearish = AUD/USD, EUR/USD and GBP/USD.
Bullish = USD/JPY, USD/CAD and USD/CHF.
Update Market Commentary
As at 1 February 2012
The US Dollar has now moved down to 79.42 and found (temporary?) support near the 79.00 natural square level which has been a prior support / resistance area in the past.
The US stock market as represented by the DJIA is having problems staying above the 12,700 natural square level. (Currently 12,633).
This now means that we should see "weakness" in the current bullish moves for the Euro, British Pound and Australian Dollar. Also, the converse (opposite) for Japanese Jen, Canadian Loonie and Swiss Franc. These three should see a (temporary?) halt to their recent declines.
Market Commentary
As at 25 January 2012
As seen on the weekly chart of the US Dollar (shown below) we notice that price currently at 79.93 has moved under the prior week low in addition to breaking under its price vibration and natural square level as explained by WD Gann.
We can now anticipate further falls from here. (As long as the 81.00 NSQ level is not breached to the upside).
For currency traders this means that price pressure will be as follows;
Bullish = AUD/USD, EUR/USD and GBP/USD.
Bearish = USD/JPY, USD/CAD and USD/CHF.
[Experienced traders recommend waiting for a retracement or pullback in price before entering a position so as to reduce risk. There are no 100% certainties as to price direction due to unexpected unforeseen world events. Risk only what you can afford to lose.]
Market Commentary
As at 13 June 2011
Last Friday, 10th June 2011 we saw a bearish weekly candle price closing (11,951) under the natural square level for the DJIA which means we should have a high probability of a continued down trend continuing.
On the US Dollar weekly chart, 10 June 2011 (chart insert) we see a bullish candle formation closing above the natural square level. This signifies a high probability that price will continue to moving upwards from the 75.19 level.
This means pressure continues as follows;
Bearish = AUD/USD, EUR/USD and GBP/USD.
Bullish = USD/JPY, USD/CAD and USD/CHF.
DJIA and US Dollar Weekly Chart as at 10 June 2011.
Market Commentary
As at 11 May 2011
The US dollar has now moved above it's prior week high indicating a good chance of further upward action. We also see that last weeks price formation shows a 'bullish candle' right on the natural square support level, giving us further confidence of the continuation of the (temporary) bullish move in the US Dollar.
This means pressure moves to;
Bearish = AUD/USD, EUR/USD and GBP/USD.
Bullish = USD/JPY, USD/CAD and USD/CHF.
US Dollar Weekly Chart as at 11 May 2011.
Market Commentary
Update At 21 April 2011
The US dollar as of yesterday broke under it's prior week low, which means that it's back to the original forecast of;
Pressure;
Bullish = AUD/USD, EUR/USD and GBP/USD.
Bearish = USD/JPY, USD/CAD and USD/CHF.
US Dollar Weekly Chart as at 20 April 2011.
Market Commentary
Update At 18 April 2011
As seen from the chart below, we notice that the US Dollar has now exceeded its prior week high. This now causes a change in the forecast. We now see temporary pressure move as follows; Bearish = AUD/USD, EUR/USD and GBP/USD.
Bullish = USD/JPY, USD/CAD and USD/CHF.
US Dollar Weekly Chart 18 April 2011.
Market Commentary
At 30 March 2011
US Dollar Weekly Chart 30 March 2011.
From the two charts above of US Stock Market and US Dollar (insert) we see a reversal from our previous forecast. The DJIA has moved above its time vibration and about its 12,100 natural square level.
The US Dollar failed to exceed its natural square level, thereby indicating further weakness.
For the last few weeks we saw the DJIA and US Dollar were out of sync, thereby resulting in mostly sideways price action for the currencies.
As noted on the US Dollar chart insert, once price moves under its prior week low it will cause a break in its vibration level thereby causing price to fall further. This will mean the pressure for the major currencies should soon be as follows;
Bullish = AUD/USD, EUR/USD and GBP/USD.
Bearish = USD/JPY, USD/CAD and USD/CHF.
Market Commentary
At 10 March 2011
US Dollar Daily Chart 10 March 2011.
From the two charts above of US Stock Market and US Dollar we see a weakening of the prior bullish move in the US Stock Market.
As noted on the chart, notice three major indications that show weakness; For DJIA 1) Price moving under prior week low. 2) Price moving under natural square level of 12,100 points and 3) Time expiration by break of vibration line.
For the US Dollar chart insert we see the exact opposite of all three points mentioned for the DJIA.
This forecast should hold true if there is no major reversal in Friday's direction.
We can be prepared for next week that the inter-market effect on price pressure for the major currencies to be as follows;
Bearish = AUD/USD, EUR/USD and GBP/USD.
Bullish = USD/JPY, USD/CAD and USD/CHF.
Market Commentary
At 14 February 2011
DJIA Daily Chart 11 February 2011.
The above chart shows the US stock market to be bullish. We also notice the orange natural square levels for both the DJIA and the US Dollar coming into play.
On the US Dollar chart insert, notice a zig zag formation which is likely to finish on the 79c level followed by a continued downward move.
The effect should be as follows;
Bullish = AUD/USD, EUR/USD and GBP/USD.
Bearish = USD/JPY, USD/CAD and USD/CHF.
Market Commentary
At 8 February 2011
US Dollar Daily Chart 8 February 2011.
Price 77.97.
As price is moving a little sideways we notice the NSQ (natural square levels) which may give us an indication of what price will do once it reaches these levels. The main levels currently as shown are 77, 79 and 81c.
Since price is in a trading range we turn our attention to the US stock market and notice that it is currently trending strongly upwards / bullish which means our current forecast from the 20 January remains in tact.
From the bearish nature of the US Dollar expect the following price pressure to continue;
Bullish = AUD/USD, EUR/USD and GBP/USD.
Bearish = USD/JPY, USD/CAD and USD/CHF.
Market Commentary
At 20 January 2011
US Dollar Weekly Chart 20 Januaray 2011.
Price 78.99.
We now see weakness in the US Dollar based on the weekly chart. As shown on the chart notice the double top, price moving under the prior week low as well as last weeks bearish candle formation. Plus, price rejected the 81.00 natural square level.
WD Gann said that the best chart to see what the market was doing was the "WEEKLY CHART".
From the bearish nature of the US Dollar expect the following price pressure;
Bullish = AUD/USD, EUR/USD and GBP/USD.
Bearish = USD/JPY, USD/CAD and USD/CHF.
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